@Article{FerreiraMira:2021:PrChCo,
               author = "Ferreira, Nicole Costa Resende and Miranda, Jarbas Honorio",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)}",
                title = "Projected changes in corn crop productivity and profitability in 
                         Parana, Brazil",
              journal = "Environment, Development and Sustainability",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "23",
               number = "3",
                pages = "3236--3250",
                month = "Mar.",
             keywords = "SISDRENA · Eta model · Drainage systems · Climate change.",
             abstract = "We investigate the impacts of climate changes in corn crop 
                         profitability and productivity in Parana (Brazil), using SISDRENA 
                         model, considering different spacings between drains. SISDRENA 
                         model is used as input, daily precipitation, and potential 
                         evapotranspiration, properties of the drainage system, data of 
                         crop requirement, and physical and hydrological soil parameters. 
                         We use climate data from the Eta model. The baseline period of the 
                         simulation is from 1981 to 2005. For the future projections, we 
                         use the greenhouse gas emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from 
                         2046 to 2070. We concluded that there are variations in 
                         evapotranspiration over the years in the historical simulation, 
                         but in the future, this variability tends to be higher. There is a 
                         tendency for increased evapotranspiration in both scenarios in the 
                         future. We found a large variability of precipitation in both 
                         historical simulation and future projections. Changes in 
                         precipitation depend on location. In terms of both profitability 
                         and productivity, the 10-m spacing between drains is the most 
                         recommended. In historical simulation and future projections, it 
                         is found large variability in corn productivity over the years. We 
                         found that there is no agreement between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which 
                         shows uncertainty in the results. In general, in RCP4.5 the 
                         tendency is to increase 3% of productivity (not significant), 
                         while in RCP8.5 the tendency is to decrease 1% (significant), 
                         compared to the baseline period. This research contributes to 
                         better farmer management and decision making, providing 
                         recommendations for the best layout for current and future 
                         climate, and indicates trends in corn productivity in future 
                         scenarios.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10668-020-00715-z",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00715-z",
                 issn = "1387-585X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "ferreira_projected.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}